The Forgotten I

            While there is much talk about the “BRIC” nations, recent economic analysis seems to point less towards a bloc of BRIC’s, but rather of BRICI’s. This last “I” stands for Indonesia, the most recent emerging power. In 2001, when the original BRIC concept was created, the country was still in turmoil, just two years after the first free parliamentary elections in that nation for nearly 30 years. The country has made enormous strides since then. According to the World Bank, its economy has grown over four percent annually for the last five years, placing it in the same territory as Brazil and Russia. It also managed to escape the late recession with a growth rate of 4.5%, in contrast to the decline in nearly every western nation. With its large population, and vast natural resources, it certainly seems to fit the bill of a new BRIC perfectly.

            Unfortunately, it also has more than its fair share of problems, both those in common with other BRIC nations, and those that are all its own. The nation continues to have sky-high corruption, making it a far less attractive place to outsource jobs, both from western nations and from other developing nations. These are probably the most important for the nation, which will be able to benefit as China’s workers become too expensive for much of the low margin manufacturing in the Pearl River valley. The most iconic of these industries is, of course, the textile industry, which “Always chases the cheapest needle”. Jobs are already fleeing the country for place like Vietnam and Bangladesh, but Indonesia obviously has the ability to take the lion’s share of these jobs, with its higher population. The industry in Indonesia is already growing, possibly by upwards of 12% on the year, sounds excellent, but not compared to Vietnam’s 60% jump in textile exports to Japan this year. However, Indonesia will not be able to advance its manufacturing sector without the cleanup that is promised by their President Yudhoyono.

            -G. Ferrante

This Week

This week, we will be discussing the BRIC nations and other developing markets and their future in our rapidly changing world.
    -G. Ferrante

Winning Over the World

The United States is a global superpower. Many analysts state that the United States is in decline and that there are foreign policy problems that the United States has. The wikileaks are just the tip of the iceberg. The United States is partly in trouble due to the rise of China. China has the potential to use their rising economic strength. They are already using this to their own advantage.

  The United States needs to apply a combination of its economic and military power as well as diplomacy to craft a foreign policy that is not just pro-America, but also good for the vast majority of the world. The United States remains the world's largest economy. China, a future competitor for the World's top economy, has internal structural problems at home. According to a recent article in Time Magazine, China is facing problems with containing inflation and maintaining the rising living standards that help to keep the government in power. They, similarly to the United States, must focus on their domestic situations.  This gives both nations an opportunity for success in matters of foreign policy. 

However, the importance of establishing diplomatic relations with other countries is to have allies somewhere in the world. This is obviously crucial. Wikileaks' release of diplomatic cables is a burden but the United States must forge ahead and be able to set an example. We do not have to be the world's policeman in everything but need to be a positive force in the world. This will show a positive image for other nations.  We must evaluate on a country by country basis and not a one size fits all approach. For a nation like North Korea we must ease our position and then cripple the nation when they try to act unfavorably to American interest. We must ratify the START treaty based on the fact that it is good policy, because it will set a good example. In dealing with Iran, we must avoid an aggressive Iran and to do so must not be too heavy-handed. 

-S. Martin

Wikileaks and Wikiwatertights

Between the four of us writers you the reader is going to hear a lot about Iran, Korea, Russia, and Israel. This is because of a certain Mr. Assange of Australia and his website Wikileaks, that’s what your going to hear here. The over 250,000 cables (analysis reports) have been mainly focused towards the countries above. 

More specifically I would like to revisit the hostility between Iran and Israel and how our newly publicized secrets will play into this. We now, and have for centuries recognized Israel as one of our greatest allies in the Middle East and they have been key as to our general influence in the area. Netanyahu is very aware of the grounds on which we base our relations with them and how Israel acted as almost a puppet government under the USA for some time. More and more now we see them taking independent and conflicting actions to deal with Palestine. This in turn upsets Iran who we have been trying so hard to reach a diplomatic ground with. Wikileaks has published hundreds of our intelligence tabs and notes on Netanyahu as a person and the actions he has taken leading Israel (being certain I would be arrested for visiting the site I chose not to look to deep into it). These cables display America’s true intentions for Israel and why they are so key to our relations with Iran. Dually, both countries nuclear programs are also things we have been keeping tabs on. Iran’s program has gone to the point where I could say we fear it. Added tension from these published cables could break the so fragile relations we have with not only both countries but the area in general.

Mr. Assange’s future is unpredictable at this point, but he will be charged with something eventually. His actions have been too sinister to go unchecked or unwatched. The effects of his publications are disastrous to the United States foreign relation stature now not only in the Middle East but globally. Does this pose a serious threat elsewhere? What should become of Assange and his site? Is America directly threatened? Answer in the comments!

-J. Sullivan

The Bear and The Eagle

The U.S has missed the boat to St. Petersburg. In the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union, the U.S. made it clear to the new Russian Federation that they would never be welcome in the new NATO. This was one of the greatest foreign policy errors in the history of the U.S. This proved that Washington and Moscow would continue to be enemies, or at least rivals, into the 21^st century. Despite The “reset button” of President Obama, this has become a self fulfilling prophecy. The U.S. now finds itself in conflict with Russia over Russia’s sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, which the Unites States wants to engage, but Russia considers to be a region over which it still has large amounts of control.

The Eastern European question is, in all likelihood, the greatest intra-European conflict in the next twenty years. Many of the former Soviet republics have gained membership in the European Union, but the U.S. needs to do more to make sure that the others do not fall back into the Russian orbit, especially as Russia seems to grow more authoritarian every year. Ukraine is one of the great prizes of east, is still completely up for grabs. In 2005, the “Orange Revolution” threatened to turn them into an entirely proto-western nation, but recent political shifts have changed that. The ruling party of the Ukraine is now not only pro-Russian, but is supported by the Russian ethnic minority in the east and southeast of the country. Russia certainly plans to maintain her dominance in the region, extending its lease on a port on the Black Sea in the Crimea for several years, and even beginning to offer passports to ethnic Russians in the Crimea. For this reason, the United States must do more to expand ties with Ukraine, as it is very important to maintain U.S. ties in the region as their current influence is due to decline. Russian influence could undermine the fragile democracy of the nation. Meanwhile, the United States must continue to work for a more cordial relationship with Russia, as the U.S. simply needs as many allies as she can get. For this reason, it is an absolute necessity that the United States ratify the new START treaty.
-G. Ferrante