Friday, October 29, 2010

2010 election projection

Now, my colleague addressed the approval of the President, but in many ways this is irrelevant because of the public disdain of the Democratic leaders in  Congress such as Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. The latter is in  a dead heat against the extremist Sharon Angle. If the Republicans in Nevada had a candidate that was more centrist or simply a more pragmatic and credible, the Majority Leader would be toast. This race in some ways is the microcosm for the rest of the Country. The increasingly conservative republican party is in a fight against Democrats and this is alienating the 'Center.'  The republicans could have had even larger gains than what I am predicting. 

I am predicting an 8 seat pick up for Republicans in the Senate and I expect John Boehner to have a 15 seat majority in the house. This is nearly identical to the projections of 538, albeit with fewer Republican gains in the House. The Republicans will have substantial influence in Congress. However, this will hurt them going forward and give the Democratic party a stronger enemy. In terms of governorships, the Republicans will hold 29 of them along with more clout in state legislatures. This will essentially wipe out much the Democratic gains in the previous to elections that were strongly Democratic, 2006 and 2008. 

- S. Martin

Thursday, October 28, 2010

The 2010 Elections

Projection, 2010:
            There have been numerous estimates as to Republican gains, and Democratic losses in this year’s campaign. And yes, this point has been belabored over and over, but Republicans are on a roll. However, many of their possible gains have been exaggerated, at least according to this liberal. The Democrats’ recent “comeback” has not been given much credence in the Media, but it may play a key role in determining the course of the nation. The Hill Newspaper today wrote on the topic of “Obamacans” or Republicans who voted for Obama, many of whom now say that they would vote for him again. This is in clear contradiction to the notion that Moderate Republicans and Independents have abandoned Mr. Obama in droves. The odds of the Democrats keeping the Senate now seem relatively high, according to numerous sources. According to the poll of experts by Chris Matthews today (10/28), predicted the Democrats remaining in power by a margin of two seats. Note, we will normally not use blatantly partisan sources, but in this case, as Pat Buchanan was a commentator, and the results being generally aligned with other projections, we will admit it. This will make any Republican attempts to pass legislation very unlikely to go anywhere. 
           Back to the House for a moment though, Charlie Cook has long been famed for not only being a levelheaded politico, but also having a “gut feeling” that Republicans will take 85 or 90 seats. However, (a New York Times affiliate), predicts a 53 seat gain for the G.O.P. within striking distance of their 54 seat gain in 1994. However, this may not necessarily be the case. The Economist Magazine (10/21) casts doubt on the veracity of the Republican wave. It makes the valid point that many Republicans are indeed leading in their polls, but not with more than 50% of the vote. This, according to nearly all pollsters, makes a race extremely volatile, especially in the wake of a Democratic spending frenzy that appears to be in the works over the next few days. Democrats are said to have saved much of their money (no small amount, by the way, as Democrats have routinely raised more than Republicans over the course of this election cycle), for this crunch time. In addition, there have been polls out in the last week that the so called “Enthusiasm Gap” is closing, meaning Democrats may be able to pull out a strong turnout from their base, especially first time voters, and minorities. Unfortunately, that may only be enough to offset a major loss from their long time supporters, the elderly, who may not only be swayed by the Tea Party Movement, but also, be persuaded not to vote at all, given the rain predicted for next Tuesday. In short, this correspondent predicts a final tally in the Senate 53 Democrats or caucused, 47 Republicans or caucused. In the House, a net gain of 44 seats, leaving Republicans with a 5 seat Advantage over Democrats.

-G. Ferrante

The Bond Project

Welcome, Ladies and Gentlemen,

In a world where everyone is too far left, or too far right, why not have a few people come together to speak to the news as it happens, from all points of view? We shall endeavour to give honest reporting, reasonable opinion, and facts, facts, facts.

-The Staff of the Bond Project