Thursday, October 28, 2010

The 2010 Elections

Projection, 2010:
            There have been numerous estimates as to Republican gains, and Democratic losses in this year’s campaign. And yes, this point has been belabored over and over, but Republicans are on a roll. However, many of their possible gains have been exaggerated, at least according to this liberal. The Democrats’ recent “comeback” has not been given much credence in the Media, but it may play a key role in determining the course of the nation. The Hill Newspaper today wrote on the topic of “Obamacans” or Republicans who voted for Obama, many of whom now say that they would vote for him again. This is in clear contradiction to the notion that Moderate Republicans and Independents have abandoned Mr. Obama in droves. The odds of the Democrats keeping the Senate now seem relatively high, according to numerous sources. According to the poll of experts by Chris Matthews today (10/28), predicted the Democrats remaining in power by a margin of two seats. Note, we will normally not use blatantly partisan sources, but in this case, as Pat Buchanan was a commentator, and the results being generally aligned with other projections, we will admit it. This will make any Republican attempts to pass legislation very unlikely to go anywhere. 
           Back to the House for a moment though, Charlie Cook has long been famed for not only being a levelheaded politico, but also having a “gut feeling” that Republicans will take 85 or 90 seats. However, (a New York Times affiliate), predicts a 53 seat gain for the G.O.P. within striking distance of their 54 seat gain in 1994. However, this may not necessarily be the case. The Economist Magazine (10/21) casts doubt on the veracity of the Republican wave. It makes the valid point that many Republicans are indeed leading in their polls, but not with more than 50% of the vote. This, according to nearly all pollsters, makes a race extremely volatile, especially in the wake of a Democratic spending frenzy that appears to be in the works over the next few days. Democrats are said to have saved much of their money (no small amount, by the way, as Democrats have routinely raised more than Republicans over the course of this election cycle), for this crunch time. In addition, there have been polls out in the last week that the so called “Enthusiasm Gap” is closing, meaning Democrats may be able to pull out a strong turnout from their base, especially first time voters, and minorities. Unfortunately, that may only be enough to offset a major loss from their long time supporters, the elderly, who may not only be swayed by the Tea Party Movement, but also, be persuaded not to vote at all, given the rain predicted for next Tuesday. In short, this correspondent predicts a final tally in the Senate 53 Democrats or caucused, 47 Republicans or caucused. In the House, a net gain of 44 seats, leaving Republicans with a 5 seat Advantage over Democrats.

-G. Ferrante

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