Friday, October 29, 2010

2010 election projection

Now, my colleague addressed the approval of the President, but in many ways this is irrelevant because of the public disdain of the Democratic leaders in  Congress such as Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. The latter is in  a dead heat against the extremist Sharon Angle. If the Republicans in Nevada had a candidate that was more centrist or simply a more pragmatic and credible, the Majority Leader would be toast. This race in some ways is the microcosm for the rest of the Country. The increasingly conservative republican party is in a fight against Democrats and this is alienating the 'Center.'  The republicans could have had even larger gains than what I am predicting. 

I am predicting an 8 seat pick up for Republicans in the Senate and I expect John Boehner to have a 15 seat majority in the house. This is nearly identical to the projections of 538, albeit with fewer Republican gains in the House. The Republicans will have substantial influence in Congress. However, this will hurt them going forward and give the Democratic party a stronger enemy. In terms of governorships, the Republicans will hold 29 of them along with more clout in state legislatures. This will essentially wipe out much the Democratic gains in the previous to elections that were strongly Democratic, 2006 and 2008. 

- S. Martin

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